The explication of Chubu Electric Power
Great Hanshin Earthquake was what shows how the present age
city was weak to the big earthquake, and proves danger when a big
earthquake occurs near the nuclear power plant indirectly.
However, the seismologist did
not point it out clearly including me. I am reflecting on that
i of Kobe University who talks like this is the proposal person
of the Tokai earthquake brewed public discussion by having declared in
July, 2003 "The nuclear power plants of Hamaoka is dangerous"
at the international society. Chubu Electric Power is also bringing forth
to the utterance. However, the "counterargument" of this company
only repeats the conventional opinion, and has not answered concretely
at all to Professor Ishibashi's questions.
Professors Ishibashi's "strong questions" over the opinion
of Chubu Electric Power are introduced here. (Separate volume of Takarajima
nuclear power plant disaster which will happen from now on
You yourself need to judge to see which opinion persuasive you more.
 Problem of the
earthquake model of Japanese government
The foundation of basic data is fundamentally wrong.
According to "government or the electric power company, the earthquake-proof
safety of a nuclear power plant is for the "earthquake-proof design
examination indicator about a power reactor institution" (following,
"indicator") upon which it was decided in 1978 (a part will
be reformed in 81) to have guaranteed the safety of the nuclear power
plants, and to say that a big earthquake will not affect to the plants
According to "indicator" it is decided that "the shake
of the [strongest earthquake for a design] which is strongest earthquake
which may happen in the future" is presented as S1, and the shake
of the one which is not likely to happen actually, [marginal earthquake
for design]" as S2, and it is determined that the earthquake-proof
design of a nuclear power plant is carried out based on them
However, the foundation of decision of S1 and S2 is fundamentally wrong
with the common sense of present age seismology. Moreover, from my viewpoint,
I can consider the nuclear power plants of Japan dare be built in the
dangerous place to a big earthquake.
I will state at first about the danger of the Tokai big earthquake that
a nuclear power plant promotion side will also be anxious about. The nuclear
power plants of Hamaoka are just in the anticipation source region of
According to the applications for the Hamaoka No. 3 furnace installation
that Chubu Electric Power issued, the shake by the earthquake of magnitude
(the following, M) 8.5 was also assumed as S2, which is the shake by the
marginal earthquake that is not likely to happen actually and, therefore,
they say it is absolutely called safety.
However, it must be said that the calculation model of the shake is
too simple and widely different from how in which an actual earthquake
It is thought that the huge Tokai earthquake of M8 class could happen
sinking and being crowded in the bottom of the Japanese Islands, whose
focus tomographic layer is at the border plane of a base rock called
the Philippine Sea Plate which presses land continuously and the land
plate on it.
The earthquake can be defined as the rock destruction that takes place
by gap of this focus tomographic layer. Although the calculation model
of Chubu Electric Power says that the gap destruction of this "focus
tomographic layer" begins from one place and it uniformly advances,
actually the strength of pressure is very distinct in each part and
what is supposed to happen can be more complicated."
Chubu Electric Power
strongest earthquake for a design (S1), and the marginal earthquake
for a design (S2)
focus" where M7.5 class earthquakes fire
"The thing that I am especially anxious with is to became the "multiplex
focus" in which the chain reaction of rock destruction occurs at
intervals by every place of a focus tomographic layer. The land will
be destroyed from a certain place and destruction progresses will be
sifted on a focus tomographic-layer top in violent speed.
Then, the parts with strong pressure and the other parts with weak pressure
will push each other irregularly, which cause some large destructions
here and there, and they carry out a chain one after another just like
a compound fracture.
It is like that is, the big earthquake of M7.5 class firing more than
one in succession. If it becomes so, the shake of a violent earthquake
will come repeatedly.
Moreover, in the earthquake of such the multiplex focus, the seismic
wave of a short cycle is generated very strongly. On the other hand,
this short cycle seismic wave greatly influences a structure like a
nuclear power plant. Although not only a short cycle seismic wave have
a severe influence on piping"
 Which will hit
a nuclear power plant directly if it is on a "branch dislocation!
"There is another thing very anxious about the Tokai big earthquake.
Besides of the destruction at the plate border plane in the side of
the ocean and the land like I mentioned before, "branch dislocation"
is derived and made into the base rock by the side of land, shift also
there, and destruction arises.
If right above that place is a nuclear power plant, it will surely become
the local earthquake that hits a nuclear power plant directly. Although
it is said in seismology it happens almost certainly, in the model which
the electric power company created, it is not taken into consideration
In short, the Tokai earthquake of M8 class is that the ocean type earthquake
called earthquake between plates and a inland type local earthquake
happen simultaneously. In this case, it is no match for the point of
seismic intensity 7 which took out serious damage with the Hyogo southern
part earthquake (Great Hanshin Earthquake). A shake must be more complicated,
should attain to a long time, and should become far intense.
I am not necessarily building any talks from the position of an anti-nuclear
power plant by force. Even if it sees the history of an earthquake,
the Ansei Tokai earthquake in 1854 (M8.4 is presumed) has happened by
the method of the same generating in the same place.
150 years pass in since that earthquake. The energy has been conserved
between plates, there is a large possibility that the Tokai big earthquake
will happen in the near future and will happen like I described now.
 The problem of upheaval
There is no guarantee to which upheaval takes place uniformly.
The problem of upheaval by the earthquake is another worry. The energy
in the plates has stored for a long time and is released suddenly at
the moment. The land side plate which was sedimenting little by little
for more than 100 years leaps up and a cape upheaves or a coast area
pushes out to a sea side. The coastline around Hamaoka upheaved 1m or
more in case of the last Ansei Tokai earthquake.
If upheaval takes place uniformly, it will only happen that the whole
nuclear power plant will be raised. But the upheaved foundation can
break and the possibility of the uneven of upheaval at surface of the
earth is also considered.
In this case, if the plant which has a nuclear reactor inside will be
raised by the way of 1m and a turbine building, of 70cm, can we say
there is no possibility of a nuclear power plant disaster caused by
the damage of piping with which both are connected?
Probably, on a design, although the difference in a way of shaking is
taken into consideration by a certain grade, I think it cannot cover
the modification of the foundation.
- Explanation of Chubu Electricity Power about upheaval
- In the explanation of Chubu Electricity Power, the possibility of
happening upheaval unevenly is not touched on at all.
 The Sagara layer
of soft rock is a brittle base rock.
"We are anxious also about the base rock of a nuclear power plant
location. Although the government and the electric power company say,
"this nuclear power plant is safe since it has made on the base
rock", in fact, that isn't so.
Although many dams are built on the very hard base rock made at the
ancient times about 100 million or more ago, the base rock of Hamaoka
nuclear power plants is soft one mixing with mud made at the left bank
of that area only 4 million years ago.
The "branch dislocation" previously stated is concentrating
at the bottom of such a brittle base rock. And construction work of
No. 1 and No. 2 plant is started before my Tokai earthquake theory,
and it is not taking into consideration at all. If the Tokai big earthquake
occurs, I cannot think at all that four sets of the nuclear reactors
in Hamaoka are safe"
- Explanation about the Sagara layer of Chubu Electric Power
 Is the rank of a
nuclear power plant's part right?
As the foundations of the "indicator" of the government,
which I have mentioned, "the classification of the importance"
of the institution on an earthquake-proof design is considered.
With it, as the maximum important institution, a nuclear reactor container,
a control rod, etc. are considered as "As" class, and the
reactor core-cooling system for emergencies etc. is considered as "A"
They think that "the most important things" are these three
functions, which are "stopping" the reactors, "cooling"
the collapse heat which continues coming out even if the division reaction
stops and "shutting up" the radioactive materials not to leak
of a nuclear reactor when a big earthquake happens and "As"-equipment
should bear at "shake S2: the marginal earthquake for a design",
and "A"-equipment should bear at "shake S1: the strongest
earthquake for a design"
On the other hand, the waste processing equipment etc. is classified
into "B" class, which is 1.5 times of the earthquake power
as the Building Standard Law and a turbine building etc. is classified
into "C" class, which is the same as the usual building and
However, you can see very easily they are carrying out the strength
classification to the one collected system, a nuclear power generation,
with differences of importance itself, and it is a very strange story.
Even if equipment of "C" class is damaged, it is clear that
system-wide soundness is not maintained.
Furthermore, the very dangerous thing for a nuclear power plant with
a big earthquake is that many apparatus and piping may be damaged simultaneously
multiplex safeguards can be out of order all at once.
If the specialists of nuclear engineering say such of my opinions as
"the amateur of a nuclear power plant", I will want to tell
them that the knowledge of seismology is missing because the "indicator"
upon which it was decided 20 years ago is too old to carry out with
the present-day knowledge of seismology.
Fear of a "nuclear power plant earthquake disaster"
When a big earthquake hits a nuclear power plant directly, what I fear
is that the large calamity which should be called [nuclear power plant
earthquake disaster] which the usual earthquake disaster and the calamity
by the nuclear power plant compounded may happen.
It may become impossible for the Self-Defense Forces and a volunteer
to go to a stricken area to give relief by radioactivity, and if a disaster
victim is only a nuclear power plant one the people may be able to take
refuge somehow, but they cannot escape because of the large damage by
Consequently, there is a possibility that the earthquake disaster ground
may be abandoned and many people will die. Moreover, besides of the
difficulty of the restoration from an earthquake disaster, the residents
in the wide range could continue being frightened of radioactivity or
genetic effects over numbers of generations.
The phrase "it will be able to tolerate to the Great Hanshin Earthquake's
class one " is used as the pronoun of safety after that earthquake.
However, I want to emphasize that the Hyogo southern part earthquake
which caused the Great Hanshin Earthquake was very ordinary as an earthquake
of M7 class.
In other words, a big earthquake of this level may happen anywhere in
Japan. The nuclear power plants of Japan, which looked at this situation
very indulgently, is scattered uniformly all over the country. "